➡️ The Dunning-Kruger Effect and the 2024 Election

Hi! Welcome to the 34th edition of 💡learnshiv. I took a break last week, happy to be back!

Here, I break down big ideas, mental models, and cultural context into practical strategies for both work and life. You'll learn how to navigate modern workplace challenges, protect your energy, and build success on your terms. Consider it advice from an experienced friend who understands that you need to survive before you can thrive – offering tools to work smarter and live better in these complex times.

What is the Dunning-Kruger Effect?

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people with limited knowledge or expertise in a specific area tend to overestimate their abilities. In simpler terms, it's when people who know very little about something think they're experts at it. In the beginning, with very little knowledge, people have incredibly high confidence. As they learn more, their confidence drops significantly.

I want to mention there has been a lot of criticism of this theory in academia, and it is reasonably valid. Regardless, this idea is worth exploring. And I don’t mean to use this issue as a way to say, “Republicans are dumb and overly confident.” There are very smart Republican people and ones who are willing to learn/change opinions. But this is an interesting effect to apply to this election and the societal shifts that come with it.

How does it relate to Trump’s election?

1. Overconfidence Despite Limited Knowledge

• Trump consistently displayed high confidence while demonstrating limited knowledge of crucial policy

• Examples include his comments about the nuclear triad, foreign policy, and government debt management

2. Misinformation Factor

• Many voters held incorrect beliefs about policies and facts but were highly confident in their understanding

• Studies showed that people who claimed to be "well-informed" often carried significant misinformation

• This confidence in incorrect information made them less likely to fact-check or question Trump's statements

3. Collective Effect

• David Dunning himself noted that the 2016 election represented a "collective Dunning-Kruger event"

• Both supporters and opponents were overconfident in their predictions and understanding

• The surprise outcome demonstrated how everyone, regardless of education or political leaning, can fall victim to the effect

Important Context:

• The Dunning-Kruger effect isn't about intelligence but about self-awareness of knowledge gaps

• It applies to everyone in different areas, not just Trump or his supporters

• The effect suggests we should all be more humble about our political knowledge and understanding

• We should be aware of this as overconfidence and misinformation continue to persist in American political discourse.

Why is this important to know?

1. Self-Awareness

• It helps us recognize that we all have blind spots, not just "other people"

• Understanding the effect can make us more humble about our own knowledge

• It reminds us that feeling certain doesn't always mean we're right

2. Better Decision Making

• Knowing about this effect can help us make more informed political choices

• It encourages us to fact-check and verify information, even when we feel confident

• It helps us recognize when we might need to learn more before forming strong opinions

Practical Actions for Readers:

1. Practice Intellectual Humility

• Question your assumptions and beliefs

• Be open to changing your mind when presented with new evidence

• Remember that expertise in one area doesn't translate to expertise in all areas

2. Improve Information Habits

• Verify claims from multiple reliable sources

• Seek out expert opinions on complex topics

• Be willing to say "I don't know" when you're unsure about something

3. Engage in Better Dialogue

• Avoid using the Dunning-Kruger effect as an insult to others

• Listen to different perspectives with genuine curiosity

• Engage in respectful discussions rather than assuming others are ignorant

4. Take Action to Learn More

• Identify areas where you might have knowledge gaps

• Actively seek out accurate information from credible sources

• Stay updated on important issues through reliable news sources

My point here is that on both sides, we should be reflecting on ourselves and acknowledging where we have expertise and where we don’t. We should be more humble in recognizing where we lack knowledge or have been misinformed and get the correct information. Sometimes, we must admit we’re wrong about our predictions or understanding of certain subjects.

This concept should cause people to reflect on themselves rather than use it as a weapon against others. The goal is to create a more informed and thoughtful democratic discourse.

Thanks for reading our 33rd newsletter. Find me on Instagram or LinkedIn where I post even more little tidbits about learning and my life.

Have a great week, and stay curious,

Shiv 💁🏽‍♀️